A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the nation and caused disorder, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the political, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in universities but very few politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Both composes two pieces that seek impartiality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and societal data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments encompass national emblems, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated the writer. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unity but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid perspectives, he said. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will eventually not succeed but each side has possesses important lessons to gain from the other's positions."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster should engage with the discussion, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
